Framing Effect

Public health emergency room, 5 a.m. You've been called in as a government advisor. Seven officials at the table. On the screen, blinking red data: a new respiratory disease has been identified, and within 30 days exactly 600 citizens will be infected. Two responses must be chosen, immediately. Plan A: a vaccine that will certainly save 200. Plan B: a new treatment with a 1/3 chance of saving all 600, and a 2/3 chance of saving none. The deputy minister beside you hands you a pen. 'Five minutes. We announce in seven.' Your pen wavers between the two options. Either way, people will die. The math is exactly the same — but somewhere between the two options, something feels different. The wall clock reads 5:03.