Dunning-Kruger Effect

Saturday evening, board games with friends. On your second try, you've won again. The first time, you thought it was luck. But twice? Maybe — maybe you're actually good at this game. A friend shows you their phone — 'Look, there's a regional tournament next Saturday.' Entry: $50. First prize: $1,000. Second: $500. Around 80 players. Anyone 18 or older can enter. You've won twice — and not by a thread, but easily. Fifty dollars is dinner money. First place would be a thousand bucks, and worst case, you get the experience. But — your sample is four friends. The tournament will be people who've been studying this game for years. Are those two wins really skill — or luck? You look at the phone. Registration closes at midnight.